COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold spiked overnight as investors awaited news on possible sanctions against Russia after Crimea voted to leave the Ukraine. The move however was short lived and the metal quickly retreated to open virtually unchanged at 1377.50/1378.50. Sideways trade throughout the day until selling interest emerged as the dollar started to recovered, taking the metal to a low of 1369.25/1370.25 prior to concluding the session at 1372.00/1373.00.

Gold had a bearish day today, making a new intraday high but then closing lower at 1372; a potential reversal warning. RSI is showing bearish divergence, having failed to make a new high on the new price high. While the longer-term uptrend still looks healthy, gold may face a test of the uptrend support which currently comes in at 1339. There should also be support from the top of the previous range, at 1355. Resistance is at the intraday high in the 1383 area.

Gold prices fell as a sharp rally in U.S. equities triggered profit-taking after bullion briefly rose in last some sessions.

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished in view of increasing political tensions and economic troubles, which benefit gold.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.81 tonnes i.e. 0.47% to 812.78 tonnes from 816.59 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved higher and later retreated alongside gold overnight to open at 21.23/21.28. It quickly touched a low of 21.20/21.25 before proceeding to an intraday high of 21.40/21.45. The metal concluded the session at 21.24/21.29.

Silver closed lower today at 21.24. The metal has struggled to break out of its sideways range. Support is at the recent low of 20.61, with resistance at Friday’s high of 21.79. We remain neutral. 

Silver dropped tracking weak gold prices after Crimea voted to join Russia and leave Ukraine on Sunday with no widespread violence

Fed will most likely to announce another $10 billion cut to its bond-buying stimulus after solid U.S. retail sales and employment data

Investors remained cautious after Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex Crimea.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.922 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.946 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.15%, or $0.004 cents.The May copper contract rose 0.94%, or 0.275 cents to settle at $2.950 a pound on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $2.912 a pound, the low from March 14 and resistance at $2.977 a pound, the high from March 13.

Results showed that nearly 97% of voters in Crimea chose to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.

Russia's lower house of parliament has stated that it will pass legislation allowing Crimea to join the nation in the "very near future."

U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington rejected the results of the referendum and warned that the U.S. was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.

Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it does not back down on annexing Crimea.

Copper has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as growing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery was flat to trade at $1,378.90 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery shed 0.15% to trade at $21.38 an ounce.

Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.

Copper prices edged lower on Monday, as concerns escalated over Ukraine after results of Sunday's referendum showed voters in Crimea voting to join Russia..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in May traded at $97.56 a barrel, down 0.07%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.01 a barrel and a high of $98.91 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.97, or 1.8%, to $106.24 a barrel on Monday, its lowest settlement price since Feb. 4.

Investors continued to monitor events in Europe, after over 90% of Crimean voters on Sunday chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea's Parliament on Monday formally asked to join the Russian Federation.

Sanctions followed as expected.

European Union foreign ministers imposed travel bans and asset freezes on 21 people they have linked to the push to have Crimea secede from Ukraine to be annexed by Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama also imposed sanctions on several Russian officials involved in the incursion of Crimea, which included freezing assets in the U.S.

Still, markets were expecting more widespread action from the West, and the response enticed investors away from oil by allaying fears the conflict could escalate and threaten energy supply from Russia.

Investors took hit-or-miss U.S. economic indicators in stride.

Data revealed earlier that U.S. industrial production rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Industrial production in January was revised to a 0.2% fall from a previously estimated 0.3% decline.

Crude price were slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday as relatively tame sanctions from the West on Russia, the world's top oil producer, over the annexation of the Crimean region of the Ukraine allayed concerns of any abrupt cutoff in supplies.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1368	1358	1388	1398
SILVER	21.13	20.89	21.64	21.91
COPPER	2.9865	2.9600	3.0300	3.0470
CRUDE	98.20	97.50	99.42	100.64

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Building Permits	0.94M	0.97M	STRONG
6.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Housing Starts	0.88M	0.92M	MEDIUM
6.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-45.9B	23.4B	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau(latest release)

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 15, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Housing Starts

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

STI Technical Analysis Weekly Report

Weekly wrap of STI:

This was the week in which STI performance was in the down side, STI opened at 3131 and closed at 3073 by making the high of 3145.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3131.87
HIGH	3145.24
LOW	3060.51
CLOSE	3073.72
CHANGE (In Points)	-62.54
% CHANGE	-1.99%

As published yesterday in our report STI made a green candle today in the expected range and made the formation of Bulkowski's Downside Tasuki Gap.

By studying the chart formation of the STI on monthly basis STI is expected to form the Three Mountain Top Pattern, as it can be noticed that on 17^th Feb STI closed at 3069 where today (14^th March) STI gave the closing at 3073 & till today Two Mountains have been formed, where we can expect the formation of third Mountain in coming trading session.

Macroeconomic factors:

• China announced the poor batch of economy data while revised Japanese fig 2013 showed slower growth than expected & this cause the tumbled for the opening of Asian market.
• Singapore listed companies with Dec year ends continued to report growth overall in last 4Q2013, but profit slipped for full year.
• SGX announced today that it is coming with the new set of Asian currency futures to expand its suite of foreign exchange future (FX) & launching options on china A50 futures, as this will be available in the 3Q 2014.
• Singapore largest retail warehouse store Big Box is set to open its doors in the 4Q2014
• Monetary Authority of Singapore announced that Singapore is set to be among the first countries in the world to regulate virtual currency intermediaries such as the operators of bitcoin exchanges & vending machines

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI lead a 3^rd day fall and 1^st week fall after 5 weeks winning strike, STI closed below its 50 & 20 Week MA level and support of 3085 it is a bearish signal.
• STI formed a long black candlestick as per the movement of market it opens flat and made week high but didn’t able to maintain above resistance level and fell badlly and crossed its opening level and finally closed with few points of recovery near to lower level. bears are dominate bulls and index closed on lower level.
• For coming week STI can move further down if it will crossed multiple support line (yellow line on weekly graph) @ 3060 mark. On the coming week there is 2 major data lined up Merchandise Trade, incl non-oil domestic exports(NODX) on 17^th March and Q1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters GDP Forecast

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3145	3115	3095	2990	3020	3060

STI Resistance:

STI having immediate support @ 3060 level and below this level it can take support @3020-2990 will be the support zone for STI.

STI Support:

STI having immediate Resistance @3095 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3115-3145

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators MACD given its bearish signal on weekly  chart , RSI and CCI are trading in down trend mode.

COMEX Report Of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.

Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.

SILVER

Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. 

This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.

Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.

Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.

Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.

Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.

Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1353	1336	1379	1388
SILVER	21.07	20.68	21.45	21.83
COPPER	2.9923	2.9586	3.0533	3.1183
CRUDE	97.16	96.33	99.21	101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.2%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	323K	334K	STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called	Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders Care	It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called	Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

STI Daily Technical Analysis View

Market Review:

Today the STI gave a gap down opening by 16 points 3113.41 with the volume of 135.6Million. Today complete red candle was formed for the day with a gap down from the previous day candle and made a Star Position.

Further STI made the Marubozu Pattern that shows the open is close to the high & the close is near to the low of the day.

STI Day Performance
Open	3113.41
High	3115.21
Low	3097.43
Close	3097.43
Change(Points)	-29.7
% Change	-0.949
Volume	1897.4M
Rise	166
Fall	236
Unch	656

Market forecast:

As STI formed inverted hammer yesterday , on the back of this STI opens with gap down and traded lower side whole day and formed bearish candlestick pattern.

Today STI gives a signal to bearish cross over between  its 50 & 20 day EMAs here 20 day EMA level now flat @ 3099.02 and 50 day EMA @ 3096,  flat  direction of shorter period EMA could be reverse and will give bearish cross over if STI will continue the same bearish.

Support level:

STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3135 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3160

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3120
Support 2	3105
Support 3	3090
Resistance 1	3135
Resistance 2	3145
Resistance 3	3160

Technical indicators:

With the recovery now Technical indicators MACD trading in bullish zone in Daily chart , RSI trading above @50.77 near to centreline and CCI crossed its +100 mark @ 24.41

Important Factor for today:-

• SGX announced today that it is coming with the new set of Asian currency futures to expand its suite of foreign exchange future (FX) & launching options on china A50 futures, as this will be available in the 3Q 2014
• Singapore largest retail warehouse store Big Box is set to open its doors in the 4Q2014
• A good boom is expected for this FY in Offshore RMB bond issuance by a strong policy support, continued cash crunch in the mainland and a huge amount of refinancing expected this year.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
DairyFarm 900	9.370	2.741	JMH 400US	59.040	-1.600
Creative 50	2.550	2.823	JSH 500US	33.600	-2.665
Goodpack	2.010	3.608	UOB	20.040	-2.053
SATS	3.060	2.000	Jardine C&C	39.110	-1.012
ManhattanRes	0.505	12.222	SIA	10.200	-1.923

COMEX Outlook of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged marginally higher overnight to open at 1339.50/1340.50. It dropped to a low of 1335.50/1336.50 as the U.S. Employment Trends Index (ETI) beat forecasts to move higher indicating that the Fed will continue trimming its monthly asset purchase program. The metal then surged to a high of 1344.25/1345.25 following news that Russian troops opened fire while taking s iege of a Ukrainian military post in Crimea and concerns over Chinese trade data that showed a fall in exports. It consolidated later in the afternoon to finally close at 1341.00/1342.00. 

Gold was unchanged today, closing at 1341. Trading for the past two weeks has been in a sideways range, characterized by a lack of momentum. Gold is now getting close to testing an uptrend line which comes in around 1324. We remain bullish so long as the low of 1307 holds. Resistance is at the top of the range in the 1354 area.

Gold recovered to settled flat as investors continued to monitor events in Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have heightened demand.

Precious metals were lower earlier as expectations that Fed will continue to gradually reduce the pace of its stimulus program weighed.

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.93% to 812.70 tonnes from 805.20 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved higher overnight to open at 20.98/21.03, which was also the session high. It dropped to a low of 20.80/20.85 prior to concluding the session at 20.88/20.93.  

Silver closed lower today at 20.88. The metal has now retraced a good part of its gains from its breakout on February 14th. While the breakout was very strong with good momentum behind it initially, RSI has now fallen from a high of 76.76 to present levels at 47.75. If silver falls back into its previous range, with resistance in the 20.60’s, it will be bearish for the metal. We are currently neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 64.36. Support from the uptrend comes in at 62.50. Resistance is at the most recent major high of 65.37.

Silver seen under pressure after strong U.S. jobs data eased worries of an economic slowdown and dimmed the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Market players will be anticipating what will be closely-watched U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment later in the week for further indications of the strength of the economy

The gold/silver ratio hit a fresh five-week high at 64.4 as silver underperformed on Monday.

COPPER

Copper settled down -1.77% recovered from the day’s low on speculation China’s government is taking steps to soothe nerves jangled by a poor trade report that inflamed fears of flagging growth in the world’s top user of metals.

Adding to the downward pressure, China’s exports unexpectedly tumbled in February, swinging the trade balance into deficit and adding to fears of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, even though the Lunar New Year holidays were blamed for the slide.

A further hit came from China’s imports of unwrought copper, which fell 30 percent in February from January due to weak Shanghai copper prices. Imports were still up 27 percent from last year’s levels, however. China is the world’s top user of copper, accounting for 40 percent of global demand. But much of its imports are used as collateral to raise funds, which are then loaned out in China’s shadow banking sector.

Worries that these financing deals could unravel have intensified since China recorded its first domestic bond default on Friday, when loss-making solar equipment producer Chaori Solar missed an interest payment. Elsewhere, U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in February despite the icy weather that gripped much of the nation, easing fears of an abrupt economic slowdown and keeping the Fed on track to continue reducing its monetary stimulus.

CRUDE

Crudeoil settled down -2.01% after poor Chinese trade figures spooked investors with fears emerging-market economies are cooling and will consume less fuel and energy.Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase. According to customs data, China’s February crude oil imports totaled 23.05mmt, down 18.1% from January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. The data added to fears over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, and overshadowed last Friday’s stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report for February. Pressure is mounting as expectations of an increase in stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil consumer as cold weather ebbed, reducing demand for heating fuels.

The survey, taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from the API and from the U.S. Department of Energy’s EIA, showed crude stocks climbed 2.2mbls on average for the week to March 7. Also the US will signal its resolve to protect its NATO allies near Russia’s borders on Tuesday with the start of the first joint military training exercises in the region since the Kremlin intervened in Ukraine. A tanker that loaded oil from a rebel-held port in eastern Libya has been halted by government forces but it has not yet reached a port controlled by government forces...

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1331	1320	1348	1355
SILVER	20.69	20.50	21.07	21.26
COPPER	3.0823	3.0541	3.1458	3.1811
CRUDE	100.37	98.40	102.30	103.56

Commodity Contract- S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.30P.M	JOLTS Job Openings	3.99M	4.02M	STRONG

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 8, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);