FOREX Weekly Forecast by Technical Analysis

EUR/USD
The U.S. currency had the biggest weekly decline against the euro in two months as the Fed announced June 18 it will reduce monthly bond-buying while holding its interest-rate target at virtually zero.

 The pound rose for a third week as traders had the most bullish futures wagers since 2007. A gauge of currencies volatility increased from a record low. EUR/USD gains were enabled as the European Commission asserted that the Eurozone’s economic outlook is improving. The Brussels-based institution now sees the Eurozone’s economy expanding by 1.2 per cent this year, up slightly from the 1.1 per cent previously forecast. They also see the unemployment rate in the currency bloc edging to 12 per cent.
Forecast:
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 1.35 level as support. That being the case, it looks as we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, using the 200 pips as the range for the market right now. Long-term traders will probably avoid this market, but short-term traders will probably find it very profitable as it looks very well contained and we have very obvious support and resistance levels. However, if we do get above the 1.37 level, we feel that the market will finally go back towards a 1.40 handle. A move below the 1.35 level since this market down to the 1.33 handle.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY ended the week at the 102 range while traders closely monitor the conflict in Iran moving to safe havens while the geopolitical situation boils over. 

In overseas trading overnight, the dollar briefly rose to around ¥102 thanks to a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates following favorable economic data, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index for June. The dollar was later stuck in a narrow range around ¥101.85.
Forecast:
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth over the course of the week, as continue to meander in a fairly tight consolidation area. It’s a bit difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market, and until it break well above the 103 level, we do not see much of a trade to the long side. As far selling is concerned, we think that there is simply far too much support below to even consider it at this point in time. Ultimately, this market breaks out to the upside, but it might take a while.
GBP/USD
With the British Pound currently trading close to a five-year high against the US Dollar, news of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting can only help enhance the Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate relationship further. 

Thursday has seen the UK retail sales report fall slightly short of predictions; however it’s still lent the Pound some underlying support. The Pound is displaying stability against the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve is currently showing no intention of increasing interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee also dropped its initial forecast of a long term interest rate from 4-3.75%.
Forecast:
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but closed above the 1.70 handle, a significant move to the upside. That was a pretty strong barrier for us, and we believe that it opens the way to the 1.75 level as a target. It will probably take a bit of time, but we do believe that eventually that level gets hit. If we pull back from here, we would fully anticipate buyers stepping into the market and lifting the British pound yet again.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD ended the week close to the 94 mark at 0.9383 staying strong after positive data and promises from the Chinese Premier that China will meet its growth expectations regardless of what the government needs to do. 

The currency soared after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘Aussie’ fell from its highest level in two months against the US Dollar after peaking at 94.33, the highest level witnessed since April 10th. The Australian dollar has more than shaken off a slight dovish shift by the Reserve Bank of Australia and has not spent much time beneath 94 cents since the FOMC meeting.  It seems likely the market would at some stage like to inquire as to what kind of supply is above 94.4 cents.
Forecast:
The Australian Dollar is now expected to fall against the US Dollar at a quickening pace as the US economy improves and commodity prices fall. The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
Currency Data from 23 – 27 june

Date	Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Forecast	Previous
Mon Jun 23	7:15am	CNY	HIGH	HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.7	49.4
	11:30am	JPY	HIGH	BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
	2:30pm	EUR	HIGH	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	49.6	49.6
	1:00pm	EUR	HIGH	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	52.7	52.3
	7:30pm	USD	HIGH	Existing Home Sales	4.74M	4.65M
Tue Jun 24	2:00pm	GBP	HIGH	Inflation Report Hearings
	7:30pm	USD	HIGH	CB Consumer Confidence	83.6	83
		USD	HIGH	New Home Sales	442K	433K
Wed Jun 25	6:00pm	USD	HIGH	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	0.003	0.003
Thu Jun 26	3:00pm	GBP	HIGH	BOE Gov Carney Speaks
	6:00pm	USD	HIGH	Unemployment Claims	314K	312K
Fri Jun 27	4:15am	NZD	HIGH	Trade Balance	250M	534M
	All Day	EUR	HIGH	German Prelim CPI m/m	0.002	-0.001
	2:00pm	GBP	HIGH	Current Account	-17.1B	-22.4B

GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold retreated overnight to open at 1292.50/1293.50. It climbed to a high of 1299.50/1300.5 on concerns of tougher sanctions on Russia by the West despite a decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. The metal then declined to a six-week low of 1292.00/1293.00 on dollar strength and speculation that U.S. interest rates will rise sooner than expected. Thereafter, it consolidated to close the day at 1293.50/1294.50.
Gold ended the session at 1294, closing below the 200 day MA at 1296 as it approaches the 50% Fibo retracement level (1287.45) of the 2014 rally to mid-March. Subsequent downside levels include the 100 day MA at 1272 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 1262.70. Resistance is expected at 1308 the March 24th close.
The Labor Department said the number of people who filed for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
The upbeat data added to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.
Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% gain.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 19.64/19.69. After a brief high at 19.74/19.79, it declined to a low of 19.60/19.65, prior to concluding the session at 19.70/19.75.
Silver closed at 19.73. The bearish trend in silver remains intact as the decline approaches the December 31st low at 18.8266. There are no key support levels ahead of the December 31st low.
The gold silver ratio has formed an engulfing bearish reversal; closing at 65.56, below yesterday’s open despite initially trading on an upswing. The upward sloping resistance trend line from the December and February highs has held, highlighting a challenge to further gains. Looking to the downside, the next key levels of support would be expected at 64.50 and 63.80.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $2.986 a pound, before trimming gains to last trade at $2.978 during European morning hours, up 0.4%, or 1.2 cents.
Copper lost 1.33%, or 4.0 cents, on Wednesday to settle at $2.965 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.
The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.
Upbeat U.S. durable goods orders figures on Wednesday indicated that economy is gaining momentum in the wake of a weather-induced slowdown.
Meanwhile, in China, data released earlier showed mainland China industrial profits increased 9.4% in the two months through February year-on-year, compared with 17% growth a year earlier.
The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices regained strength on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy..
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $101.35 a barrel, up 0.07%. On Thursday it reached the highest settlement price since March 7, after hitting an overnight session low of $100.04 a barrel and a high of $101.69 a barrel.

Brent oil on the ICE futures exchange rose 80 cents, or 0.8%, to $107.83 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since March 14.
Oil prices shot up after the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 2.6% in the final three months of 2013, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.4%. Market expectations had been for an upward revision to 2.7%.
Still, the report showed that personal spending was revised up to 3.3% from 2.6% initially, the fastest rate of growth in three years, which drew applause from investors betting that sluggish economic indicators hitting the wire earlier this year were the result of rough winter weather that disrupted commerce and not due to an economic soft patch.
Separately, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000.
Analysts were expecting jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
Also supporting both U.S. and European crude blends were concerns the U.S. and Europe may stiffen sanctions on crude-rich Russia and subsequently threaten global oil supply.
Crude oil prices gained slightly in Asia on Friday on a carryover from overnight better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and weekly jobless claims data.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1287	1279	1305	1315
SILVER	19.52	19.37	19.84	20.01
COPPER	3.0165	2.9965	3.0465	3.0565
CRUDE	100.30	99.33	101.97	102.67

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.3%	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	79.9	80.6	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	3.2%		LOW

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	May 1, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 25, 2014
FF Notes	The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

Singapore SGX- STI Technical Analysis Report

Market Review: 

Singapore equities recover inch today, after its previous day free fall. However STI closed below 3100 mark.

STI Day Performance
Open	3085.54
High	3101.36
Low	3082.86
Close	3096.74
Change(Points)	+8.49
% Change	+0.28%
Volume	2634.6M
Rise	214
Fall	195
Unch	643

Market forecast:

• STI opened flat @ 3085.50 and then its made day low 3082.86 above then previous days lower level and finally closed near to day high @ 3096.74 level just below 3100 level.
• STI formed a green candlestick as it traded higher side, and closed near to day high. This is a bullish sign.
• STI currently traded above 50 & 20 day EMA level , so whenever it maintain above these level it will be in bullish zone.

Support level:

STI having immediate support @ 3080 level and below this level it can take support @3060-3040 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3105 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3120-3135

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3080
Support 2	3060
Support 3	3040
Resistance 1	3105
Resistance 2	3120
Resistance 3	3135

Technical indicators: 

Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are trading in recovery mode, RSI is in oversold zone so we can expect recovery in it.

Important Factor for today:-

• Allianz raised its dividend by almost a 5th after fourth-quarter net profit met expectations at 1.26 billion euros (US$1.72 billion), as a strong operating gain in property and casualty insurance offset declines elsewhere..
• United Overseas Australia Ltd has achieved a $219.2 million operating profit for the financial year ended 31st December 2013. After taxation and non-controlling interests, the profit applicable to the members of the Company was $97.8 million, an increase of $15.8 million or 19.3% when compared with the 2012 profit result.
• City Developments: 4Q13 Net Profit Down 11.4% to S$221 Million, Declared S$0.08 Final Dividend.
• Yangzijiang acquisition Of Remaining 45.53% Stake In Jiangsu Runzhou Heavy Industry Co., For US$5.46 Million.
• Yanlord FY 2013 Revenue Rises 9.5% to RMB11.28 Billion, Strong Pre-Sales Growth And Subsequent Recognition To Drive Future.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
GoldenAgr	0.565	4.63	THBEV	0.51	-1.92
Jardine C&C	38.09	2.92	HPH Trust US$	0.62	-1.59
SGX	6.94	1.31	Wilmar	3.47	-0.57
SembMar	4.08	1.24	JMH 400US$	55.3	-0.36
Genting SP	1.355	1.12	DBS	16.4	-0.3

Get Live SGX Stock Picks on Moible

Todays Singapore Market

Shares opened flat today , STI opens above its 3k mark following a soft lead from Wall Street while a report in China said the country's central bank would boost liquidity to help kick start the economy.

STI opens @ 3003 levels and then it trades in a narrow range of , made a day low of 2995 and then again trades higher and made a day high of 3010.85 and finally closed @ 3008.21 with gain of 7.63 points.

After a fairly flat start to the session, Asian markets took off on hopes that China will soon ease policy.

STI - Singapore Stock for Tomorrow

STI was positive today as yesterday it closed above its 50 day MA level, in continuation of this it opens above 3k mark and closed positively.

Market was flat today but still it manage itself above 3000 mark and made a high of 3010 a closed near today high.

Investors are also looking ahead to a G20 meeting on Thursday and Friday that will discuss boosting the International Monetary Fund's debtcrisis war chest to $500 billion.

STI is trading in a consolidation phrase and its range is 2940-3035, so whenever it will not crossed either side we can’t expect any big move.

STI Support

STI having nearest support @ 2985 level and below this level it can take support @ 2965-2945 level is the major support zone.

STI Resistance

STI having Resistance @ 3015 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3035-3050 levels.

Click to Get Live Stock Picks, Singapore Market Picks, Forex Recommendation.

Singapore Live Market Updates

CIMB to buy 60 pct of San Miguel's bank unit soon
Malaysia's second largest lender CIMB Group will sign a deal soon to buy 60 percent of Philippine conglomerate San Miguel Corp's unlisted banking arm, the chairman of Bank of Commerce said on Monday.
It would be the first foray by the Malaysian bank in the Philippines, further boosting its regional footprint after it bought some equities and investment banking units from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc elsewhere in Asia earlier this month. The deal will also allow San Miguel, the country's most diverse conglomerate, to keep a minority stake in the unlisted bank while focusing on its new ventures such as power, mining, telecoms, infrastructure, and more recently, airlines.

The deal will be presented to Bank of Commerce shareholders at a meeting on April 24.
San Miguel was little changed in early trade on Monday, slipping 0.3 percent, in step with the broader market's 0.3 percent decline. CIMB was down 0.4 percent. CIMB's buy-in may be worth about $200 million to $250 million and could be finalised in the next few days, said a report by the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Temasek buys $2.3 bln of ICBC shares from Goldman
Singapore state investor Temasek is buying $2.3 billion worth of ICBC's Hong Kong-listed shares from seller Goldman Sachs , piling into three of China's top four banks and raising its bet on the world's second-biggest economy.
Temasek was burned by its financial industry exposure in 2008, hit by stakes in large European and U.S. banks that plunged in the crisis. But it has kept nearly 40 percent of its investment portfolio in banks it feels are strong and are capturing emerging market growth.

Goldman first bought 4.9 percent of ICBC for about $2.6 billion before the 2006 IPO, which was then the world's biggest public offering. The latest stake purchase comes after Temasek, which manages about $150 billion in assets, raised about $800 million since the start of the year in three significant selldowns in its portfolio companies. This included a 1.4 percent stake sale in ICICI Bank.

Click Here to get all Stock Picks, Live Share prices with SGX Stock Tips, & Forex strategy.