SGX Outlook: Weekly Technical Analysis for STI

WEEKLY WRAP OF STI

Straits Times Index (STI) opened at 3114.56 and ended -4.40 points or 4.40% lower to 2971.01 this week. STI came off from its weekly peak of 3116.36 and low of 2948.14. 

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3114.56
HIGH	3116.36
LOW	2948.14
CLOSE	2971.01
CHANGE (In Points)	-137.15
% CHANGE	-4.40

Banks, properties and oil and gas heavy weights hit at the moment which are dragging the index lower.

This week has’nt been good for the local stock market, with the Straits Times Index (STI) dropping five days. Volume has been thin in the market. For the week, the STI lost about four points.

Singapore Exchange is proposing the introduction of an Affiliate Segregation rule, whereby the collateral of an affiliate of an SGX Derivatives Clearing (SGX-DC) member is protected if the member defaults on its own contracts.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
2948	2882	2794	3115	3215	3281

 LOCAL BOURSE

Local banks' loan growth is likely to subdued remain in coming quarters, though the lenders may benefiit from higher net interest margins with the imminent rise of interest rates, Fitch Group's BMI Research says in a report released on Friday.

Singapore is likely to remain stuck in the grip of deflation when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is released next week.

Singapore-based online retailer RedMart has raised US$26.7 million ($37.5 million) in funding from investors, including Garena, Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin and SoftBank Ventures Korea.

STI Technical Analysis Review and Market Forecast

Market Review for STI:
Straits Times Index opened lower on Tuesday, following the retreat in equity markets in Tokyo, the US and Europe after the Shanghai stock exchange suffered its largest one-day fall of 8.5 per cent in eight years on Monday which sparked concern about global economic growth.
STI ended 32.33 points or 0.98 % lower to 3281.09. Singapore stocks traded in negative territory at midday, in line with broad declines in other Asian markets. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 3306.63 and low of 3277.13.
Singapore's central bank will probably hold off from further monetary easing at its next policy review in October.

STI Day Performance
Open	3305.63
High	3306.63
Low	3277.13
Close	3281.09
Change(Points)	-32.33
% Change	-0.98%
Volume	2254.9 M
Rise	144
Fall	278
Unch	372

Market forecast for STI:
Straits Times Index has broken the support of 3295 and is expected move sideways. There is a short term support at 3265, it is likely to rebound from this level. However if it breaks this level it might further go down.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3265	3223	3200	3312	3346	3385

Technical Indicators:
RSI is below centre line at 38.575 and CCI is at -112.49. Difference line of MACD performed at -4.310 below its signal line which performed at -3.862.

Top Gainers			Top Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
CHINA HONGCHENG	0.019	375	GREEN BUILD	0.255	-15
CHINA GREAT LAND	0.033	230	METRO	0.915	-8.5
CHINA ESSENCE	0.021	162.5	YZJ SHIPBLDG SGD	1.27	-3.42
CN15500MBECW150929	0.054	63.64	PETRA FOODS	3.25	-2.99
ZHONGXIN FRUIT	0.035	52.17

Important Factor for today:-

• European shares bounced in early trading on Tuesday after falling in the previous five sessions, with some strong company results and mergers and acquisitions news supporting the market.
• Chinese shares fell on Tuesday, as Beijing scrambled once again to prop up a stock market whose wild gyrations have heightened fears about the financial stability of the world's second biggest economy.
• Gold hovered near its weakest level since early 2010 on Tuesday, reflecting investor hesitation to bid up bullion amid growing expectations of a near-term hike in U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting later in the day where policymakers are likely to signal that a rate hike later in the year is certain as the U.S. economy strengthens.
• Oil prices fell towards four-month lows on Tuesday, dropping for a fifth straight session on persistent worries about a global supply glut, while stock market sell-offs on both sides of the Pacific also rattled investor sentiment.
• Dollar firmed on Tuesday as cautious investors covered short positions ahead of the start of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and as a continued slump in Chinese equity markets sapped appetite for riskier assets.
• Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MHB) reported a 55% drop in second quarter net profit from a year earlier, on lower income from its oil and gas structure construction unit.
• Indonesia will impose a levy on palm oil exports starting on Thursday after weeks of delay, providing as much as 4.5 trillion rupiah this year to state coffers.
• Treasury yields decline for a fifth trading day on Monday, recording the longest losing streak since April 17, as investors seek safe assets during a global stock selloff led by a sharp decline in Chinese markets.

Singapore Stock Market: STI Technical Analysis & Forecast

Market Review for STI: Straits Times Index (STI) opened 0.3 per cent higher with STI advancing 9.12 points to 3,368.29, as gold prices stemmed a slump. STI ended 2.1 points or 0.06% lower to 3371.40. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 3375.97 and low of 3360.12.Singapore stocks inched up at midday on lack of direction and interest.

Singapore’s inflation rate remained in negative territory in June, although it inched up to -0.3 per cent from -0.4 per cent in May due to larger increases in the costs of services, food and private road transport. Singapore's annual consumer prices fell for the eighth straight month in June, an outcome that could give the central bank room to ease policy if economic growth disappoints.

STI Day Performance
Open	3371.12
High	3375.97
Low	3360.12
Close	3356.4
Change(Points)	-2.80
% Change	-0.08%
Volume	2292.0 M
Rise	187
Fall	230
Unch	390

Market forecast for STI: Straits Times Index is expected to take sideways in next rading sessions. It has its resistance level at 3387, if it breaks this level it might go further up.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3345	3288	3247	3387	3437	3473

Technical Indicators:

Top Gainers			Top Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
FUXING CHINA	0.55	25	HSI25600MBEPW150730	0.082	-26.79
STARLAND	0.18	21.62	EASTERN	0.168	-25.33
RAFFLES UNITED	0.171	13.25	OCBC BK MBEPW151103	0.091	-22.22
CEFC INTL	0.28	12	HSI26400MBEPW150730	0.193	-16.09
LOTTVISION LTD1	0.405	10.96	REGAL INTL	0.22	-15.38

Important Factor for today:-

• Falling Chinese stock markets and the Greek debt crisis have raised concern about demand, while the Iranian nuclear deal could lead to higher oil exports from the Islamic Republic.
• Oil product inventories surged to their highest since at least 1999, signs that markets are struggling with a supply glut that could prompt refineries in the region to cut rates.
• US home resales rose in June to their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, a sign of pent-up demand that should buoy the housing market recovery and likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates later this year.
• European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said creditor institutions were seeking to conclude talks with Greece on a third bailout in the second half of August.
• apan's economy is expected to expand at a slower pace in the second quarter than projected a month ago in the face of weak consumer spending and exports.
• China stocks rose sharply on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite index up for the sixth consecutive session, led by blue chips, after the government reaffirmed its support for the market.
• European bonds rallied after Greece's parliament approved a second set of creditor-imposed reforms.
• Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Thursday pledged his government would never allow banks to seize the primary residences of Greeks as parliament prepared to vote on a bill that toughens rules on foreclosures.
• South Korea's economy slowed in the second quarter, with consumer spending stifled by an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) and exports failing to lift from a lengthening slump.
• Oil prices were mixed in Asia on Thursday, with WTI stuck below US$50 a barrel after a rise in US stockpiles added to concerns over a supply glut, analysts said.
• Gold's fallen out of favor with investors as the Federal Reserve prepares to increase borrowing costs, boosting the dollar.
• Ringgit fell the most in more than two weeks as a decline in commodity prices erodes the outlook for Malaysia’s export earnings.
• Oil prices fell on Wednesday after US government data showed higher crude stockpiles, adding to concerns about a global supply glut.

Singapore SGX : Technical Analysis Report

Market Review for STI: Singapore share prices opened stronger, with the STI up 9.94 points or 0.3 per cent to 3,342.88, ahead of an emergency meeting of European leaders and finance ministers on Greece. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 3346.48 and low of 3340.93. Volume amounted to 716.4 million shares.
Singapore shares traded sideways, against a backdrop of mixed performance from other Asian bourses. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese markets extended declines as investors wind down margin trades. Singapore shares continued to dither between gains and losses, amid a mixed performance in other Asian bourses.
Singapore will provide advance estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter at 8 am on July 14. Singapore Exchange welcomes Noble's decision to carry out a review of its mark-to-market models and valuations as this will address and help bring closure to questions raised by the market on this issue.

STI Day Performance
Open	3342.20
High	3346.48
Low	3327.70
Close	3340.93
Change(Points)	+7.99
% Change	+0.24%
Volume	1171.9 M
Rise	172
Fall	210
Unch	433

Market forecast for STI: STI is expected to take side ways trend. If it breaks its resistance level of 3360, it might take bearish trend.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3317	3290	3262	3361	3387	3465

Technical Indicators: RSI is below the center line at 48.959 CCI is at 53.416. Difference line of MACD performed at --13.482 below its signal line which performed at -20.333.

Top Gainers			Top Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
CITYDEV	9.9	2.38	ASCENDAS REIT	2.44	-2.58
COMFORTDELGRO	3.02	1.17	CAPITALAND	3.53	-2.23
DBS	20.98	0.99	CAPITAMALL TRUST	2.19	-1.3
GENTING SING	0.905	0.97	CITYDEV	9.9	-1.23
GLOBAL LOGISTIC	2.51	0.92	COMFORTDELGRO	3.02	-0.8

Important Factor for today:-

• Malaysia plans to cut more subsidies and move billions of dollars in government employee housing loans off its balance sheets to bolster its fiscal position, even as a growing scandal threatens Prime Minister Najib Razak’s ability to implement potentially unpopular policies.
• China’s stocks fell early Tuesday, casting doubt on the potency of Beijing’s aggressive rescue efforts, while investors elsewhere in Asia appeared to shrug off concerns over Greece’s debt situation.
• Athens stock exchange will remain closed until Wednesday, the Greek Capital Markets Commission said, in line with the closure of the country's banks as Greece races to avert bankruptcy and remain in the euro.
• European shares steadied on Tuesday after slipping in the previous session, with investors focussed on crunch talks over the Greek debt crisis at a euro zone summit later in the day.
• Indonesia's government will not introduce new taxes or raise existing ones this year in order to achieve its revenue collection target, a finance ministry official said on Tuesday, raising prospects of a wider fiscal deficit unless spending is cut.
• European stock and bond markets steadied on Tuesday before a euro zone leaders summit to discuss the Greek debt crisis while a further fall in Chinese shares reminded investors of other dark clouds on the horizon. Oil recovered some ground after Monday's stomach-churning selloff prompted by Greeks' overwhelming rejection of the terms of a bailout deal and the Chinese stock markets turmoil.
• Japanese stocks came bouncing back Tuesday morning, shrugging off foreign selling and a negative cue from the U.S. to focus instead on stock-positive drops for oil and the yen.
• Oil futures sank to their lowest settlement in nearly three months Monday, as traders fretted the fallout from Greek turmoil as well as a potential Iranian nuclear deal, which may result in a flood of millions of barrels of oil to global supplies.

SGX Singapore - STI Technical & Fundamental Analysis with forecast signals

Market Review for STI: Singapore shares continued to trade weaker. STI slipped 0.40% to 3320.33. The Straits Times Index came off from its intraday peak of 3333.99 and low of 3,318.28. Singapore shares traded weaker, even as US non-farm payrolls for the month of May came in better than expected last Friday at 280,000, topping estimates of 226,000.

However, US unemployment rate inched up to 5.5% in May, as compared to 5.4% in April.
Open- 3326.37
High- 3333.99
Low- 3318.28
Close- 3320.33
Change(Points)- -13.34
% Change- -0.40%
Volume- 161.53M
Market forecast for STI: Straits Times Index is expected to continue its downward moment as Singapore FX Reserves released today has decreased from 251.9B in May to 250.2B in June which might have a negative impact on the market.
Technical Indicators: RSI at 23with its CCI at -152.
GLOBAL FACTORS & WORLD INDICES:

• Singapore’s public transport operator SMRT has backed out of a proposed investment in a firm bidding to become the fourth wireless telecommunications operator in the island nation, but it may only be a temporary reprieve for the incumbents, Citigroup says.
• Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) has launched a cloud-based solution that helps enterprises in Asia Pacific, Australia, Europe and the US simplify the management of their networks.
• Crude oil prices fell on Monday as markets were expectedto be increasingly oversupplied following OPEC’s decision tokeep its production targets unchanged.
• U.S. benchmark Treasury debt yields on Friday posted theirbest weekly performance in two years after data showed theworld’s largest economy created more jobs than expected lastmonth, bolstering prospects for a Federal Reserve interest ratehike in September.
• Stocks in Japan fell Monday as expectations of a U.S. interest rate increase grew, while the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +1.91% rose to its highest in more than seven years after a volatile week.
• Hong Kong stocks managed to shed most of their opening losses Monday morning, shrugging off a drop for U.S. markets at the end of last week, with the Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.48% down 0.1%, moving off earlier lows as weak Chinese trade data for May suggested higher odds for more government stimulus. The data printed weaker than expected, showing a 17.6% tumble in imports and a 2.5% drop for exports.
• Japanese stocks came rolling higher in early Monday trade, emboldened by a sharply weaker yen and Friday’s gains for U.S. banks in the wake of an upbeat May jobs report. The Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -0.02% added 0.3%, wiping away Friday’s 0.1% slip, while the broader Topix I0000, -0.30% improved by 0.2%. Blue-chip exporters enjoyed a boost as the yen explored new 13-year lows against the dollar USDJPY, -0.05% which was buying ¥125.54 early Monday.
• The China Securities Regulatory Commission is revising the rules in a bid to achieve “orderly development” in brokerage firm’s margin-trading and short-selling businesses.
• The dollar was lower against the yen in Asia trade Monday, as investors locked in profits fromlast week’s rally that pushed the greenback to its highest level in 13 years.The dollar was at ¥125.51, compared with ¥125.64 late Friday in New York.
• FBM KLCI pared some of its loss at the midday break today while the ringgit fell to a nine-year low versus the US dollar. The ringgit dropped to a nine-year low versus the US dollar, weakening to as low as RM3.7630 against the US dollar, as the dollar strengthened on better US non-farm payrolls data.