COMEX Daily Technical Analysis

GOLD

Spot gold prices started the week on a positive note and rose to three week high on escalating tensions in Ukraine and a break above the key $1300 mark. However, rising US equities with S&P moving within 1percent of its record high last week capped sharp gains in the metal.

Forecast

On an intraday basis, gold prices can trade on a mixed note and can take an up-move.

SILVER

Silver tried to rally during the course of the week, but gave up most of the gains by the time we closed on Friday. We see the $20.00 level as massively resistive now, as the market has formed a shooting star. However, we have also formed a couple of hammers in this general vicinity, so the end of the day it’s probably going to be consolidation going forward.

Forecast

On an intraday basis, we expect silver prices to trade on a mixed note as the economic data released from the US is painting bright picture about the economy.

While on the other hand, improving trend in SPDR holdings along with weakness in the DX will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.

CRUDE

Crude oil prices for June expiry contract at NYMEX managed a strong performance past week. WTI prices registered gains of around 1. 5% to $101.75 per barrel for the last week In the other major global benchmark, the ICE Brent saw a near similar performance with the commodity inching higher by 1.75% to near $110 per barrel level.

Forecast

Brent rising in the recent past rapidly possibly due to Libya tension while WTI grade is managing higher. For the day we expect both the oil grades may trade higher so we suggest buying from lower levels.

TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1290	1280	1300	1308
SILVER	19.00	18.50	20.00	20.50
CRUDE	101	100.80	102	102.80

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• US Building Permits increased to 1.08 million in the last month.
• LME Copper inventories plunged by whopping 10.5 percent last week.
• Euro Zone Trade Balance was at surplus of 15.2 bn Euros in Q1 2014.
• Improving US economic data exerts downside pressure on gold prices.
• US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 81.8-mark in May.

Data Update for 19th May 2014

Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
4:15am	NZD		PPI Input q/q	1.00%	0.50%	-0.70%
	NZD		PPI Output q/q	0.90%	0.40%	-0.40%
4:31am	GBP		Rightmove HPI m/m	3.60%		2.60%
5:20am	JPY		Core Machinery Orders m/m	19.10%	6.10%	-4.60%
12:30pm	EUR	High	German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
Tentative	EUR		German Buba Monthly Report
All Day	CAD		Bank Holiday

GOLD SILVER & CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD

US Unemployment Claims declined the most in last seven years. Hence a sharp fall was noticed at the US opening time. There were other data also at the same time i.e. Manufacturing Sales and Core CPI that made a gap down of almost 5$ at a time and then a little recovery took place. Else the commodity should break the resistance of 1306. Following the support @1289

Forecast

Gold is expected to trade in a bit consolidate range of 1306 to 1289

SILVER

 

Taking cues from weakness in gold prices even spot silver prices declined by around 1.3 percent. Besides, weakness in the base metals complex also exerted downside pressure on prices. So we expect that the silver price would trade in a consolidation.

Forecast

Silver prices are expected to trade in a range of 18.800 to 20.00

CRUDE

Crude oil prices moved down in US nearly 1% as positive US data and higher inventories earlier pushed the prices down. Russia faces broader economic and industrial sanctions from the United States and Europe if it meddles in Ukraine's presidential elections on May 25.

Forecast

Crude is expected to trade sideway for today’s session in a range of 102 to 101

TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1290	1280	1300	1310
SILVER	19.00	18.20	20.00	20.80
CRUDE	99.80	99.00	101.90	102.70

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• German Prelim GDP increased by 0.8 percent in Q1 of 2014.
• The US Dollar Index (DX) declined marginally by 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
• Taking cues from weakness in gold prices even spot silver prices declined by around 1.3 percent. Besides, weakness in the base metals complex also exerted downside pressure on prices.

Data Update for 17th May 2014

Time	Currency	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
4:30am	USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
7:30am	CNY	Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y	5.00%		5.50%
10:00am	JPY	Revised Industrial Production m/m	0.70%	0.30%	0.30%
12:15pm	EUR	French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q		-0.10%	0.10%
1:30pm	EUR	Italian Trade Balance		2.47B	2.62B
2:30pm	EUR	Trade Balance		17.3B	15.0B
6:00pm	CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases		7.21B	6.08B
	USD	Building Permits		1.01M	1.00M
	USD	Housing Starts		0.98M	0.95M
7:25pm	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		84.7	84.1
	USD	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations			3.20%

Market Review for STI:
STI performed well today as opened up by 22 points @3245 and buyers made the market bullish, the high of 3261.32 was marked on the chart and today’s closing was @3259.09. 

STI Day Performance
Open	3245.99
High	3261.32
Low	3244.08
Close	3259.09
Change(Points)	36.60
% Change	1.14
Volume	1711.3M
Rise	235
Fall	157
Unch	689

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a long Green candle for the day and broke the resistance of 3250 some up move is expected in the coming session as the buyers are abrasive to take the market for the new levels.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @57.53, where CCI @27.71

STI LEVELS
Support 1	3250
Support 2	3240
Support 3	3225
Resistance 1	3270
Resistance 2	3280
Resistance 3	3299

Important Factor for today:-

• CNMC attained a net profit of US$1.26 million (S$1.58 million) with a large jump in gold production, recovered a loss of US$0.6 million the year before.
• The share prices of Hotel Properties Limited (HPL) rises from S$3.50 to S$4 a share .This is because of 68 Holdings Pte Ltd company who agreed to buy 17.1 million shares @ S$4 each.
• United Overseas Bank Limited’s (UOB) awarded with a rating of “BBB” by Fitch rating Agency.
• Profit for CDW Holding was announced yesterday with a sharp fall of 50.4% where a year ago it was 1.41 million major reason that pull the profit was higher material cost so the earning per share (EPS) came @0.30 US cent and Revenue grew 2% to US$34.75 million

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
ComfortDelGro	2.21	4.25	ThaiBev	0.595	-0.83
Jardine C&C	45.7	3.91	StarHub	4.11	-0.72
CapitaLand	3.13	2.96	HongkongLand USD	6.93	0.14
Global Logistic	2.82	2.92	CityDev	10.8	0.19
JMH 400 USD	61.42	2.37	SIA	10.24	0.39

Market Review for KLCI:
Today KLCI opened at 1874.19 almost 8 points up from the previous closing and took a Upside, made a high of 1879.64. buyers were fully active in todays session and took the KLCI to a new level.

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1874.19
High	1879.64
Low	1873.35
Close	1879.02
Change(Points)	13.12
% Change	0.70
Volume	1826.8M
Rise	521
Fall	283
Unch	1358

Market forecast for KLCI:
As today KLCI had broken the major resistance of 1870 and set a new level on the chart as today’s session had marked a major gap up opening and now there is a possibility that the market can took some correction to cover the gap where all the technical are showing bullish sign.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1870
Support 2	1860
Support 3	1850
Resistance 1	1890
Resistance 2	1900
Resistance 3	1905

Vicom: Company Profile & Business Model

VICOM Ltd is Singapore's leading provider in technical testing and inspection services. A pioneer in vehicle inspection, The VICOM Group is a subsidiary of ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited, the world's 2nd largest transport company. It comprises VICOM and JIC Inspection Centres and SETSCO Services. These centres are all located at convenient locations throughout Singapore.

Recognised for our service quality and efficient business practices, our expertise has also extended abroad to countries in Asia and the Middle East. As early as 1985, we were consultant/adviser to OMACO of Saudi Arabia and helped set up inspection centres there. In 1995, we offered consultancy services to MCM (Malaysia) and also Bangladesh. In 2003, we were jointly involved with ATB Services in the vehicle inspection project for Land Transport Department of Brunei.

Corporate Development

Vicom is performing in various business segment and had a vast business expansion plans like:-

• Chemicals
• Calibration & Measurement
• Consumer Goods
• Construction
• Electrical & Electronics
• Environment
• Food & Biology
• Industrial & Manufacturing
• Medical & Pharmaceutical
• Oil & Gas, Petrochemical

Profit & Loss	Q1 FY 2014	Q1 FY 2013	Growth %
Revenue	26,897	26,03	3.31%
Profit Before Tax	9,669	9,144	5.74%
Profit Attributable To Shareholders	8,013	7,463	7.37%

As compare to the other counter in the sector the Tritech is giving good return than any other counter on annual term and is at a right price to enter in the counter.

Reading into Vicom Annual Report

Total Equity increased by $8.1 million to $138.2 million as at 31 March 2014 due mainly to profits generated from operations, partially offset by dividend payment to non controlling interests.

Total Assets increased by $6.1 million to $164.5 million as at 31 March 2014 due to the increase in Current Assets by $6.2 million. Total Liabilities decreased by $2.0 million to $26.3 million as at 31 March 2014 due mainly to the payment of variable bonus in March 2014

The net cash inflow in the quarter was $6.4 million.

Fundamentals Analysis

Fundamentals	Values
EPS (S$)	0.321
PE	18.37
Dividend (S$)	0.16
Dividend Yield(%)	2.72
NAV(SGD)	1.55
Market Cap	522.82
Issued & Paid-up Shares	88,614,000
Price / NAV	3.08

Revenue

The Group’s total revenue was $26.9 million for 1Q14 was $0.9 million or 3.3% higher than 1Q13, contributed by higher business volume.

Operating Expenses

The Group’s operating expenses were of $17.4 million for 1Q14 was $0.4 million or 2.3% higher than 1Q13 due mainly to the higher expenses needed to generate the increased revenue.

Operating Profit

Consequently, the Group’s operating profit of $9.5 million for 1Q14 was $0.5 million or 5.2% higher than 1Q13. The Group’s profit before tax of $9.7 million for 1Q14 was $0.5 million or 5.7% higher than 1Q13.

The Group’s Profit attributable to Shareholders of the Company of $8.0 million for 1Q14 was $0.6 million or 7.4% higher than 1Q13

As per the return on the investment and security, Vicom is a good counter to hold for 6 or 12 months to 18 months.

Comparison of Vicom & transport sector.

Return	PE	Rolling PE	Price / NAV	Dividend Yield (%)
Vicom	18.378	18.030	3.8060	2.725
TRANSPORT Sector	24.968	25.212	1.5540	3.033

Technical Analysis

Currently the counter is trading in a very range bound phase and had bounded itself into very close Support of 5.8 and Resistance of 5.9 else the tec. Indicator RSI is above the centre line @76.90, is about to go in overbought condition. CCI is @67.17. we can expect the counter to take a up move and break the resistance in coming sessions.

#Bullish Consolidate

After having a detail study on the Vicom the counter is in consolidate up side phase. But overall the counter (Technically & Fundamentally) is in a bullish trend and is good to hold for a long term.

Singapore Stock Market Technical Analysis

Market Review for STI:
STI made a gap up at 3249.13 in the today’s session, a jump of almost 8 points was noticed at the time of opening. Later it came down and made a low of 3242.39 and closed near to low @ 3245.56.

STI Day Performance
Open	3249.13
High	3250.66
Low	3242.39
Close	3245.56
Change(Points)	3.96
% Change	0.12%
Volume	1242M
Rise	221
Fall	178
Unch	678

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a red candle for the day. Today it was third continuous day for STI to form Red candle in a line. As it is standing on the major support of 3240. A little consolidation is expected in tomorrow’s session.
Technical indicators:
RSI is just above the centre line the centre line @56.62 Where CCI is @ 19.37

STI LEVELS
Support 1	3235
Support 2	3225
Support 3	3210
Resistance 1	3255
Resistance 2	3265
Resistance 3	3280

Important Factor for today:-

• Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for Singapore increased to 51.1 in April where in March it was 50.8 was in March.
• Singapore Iron Ore Week starts from today to 8th May 2014.
• Singapore Exchange announced that the total traded value of Securities fell from 17% to 25.8 Billion in April where the Commodity trading and the Clearing activity grew on YOY basis.
• Q4 net Profit of SIAEC engineering fall to 1.1% to S$65.2 million.
• Acquisition of 89.18% Stake was made in Natural Gas Business in China from China Print Power, valued to HK$ 515.4 Million.
• Cash earning of S$15.3 million for Q4 ended 31 March 2014 published by CitySpring

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
Genting Sing	1.345	2.67	SPH	4.14	-1.43
ThaiBev	0.61	1.67	Golden Agri-Res	0.61	-0.81
CityDev	10.89	1.02	HongkongLand USD	6.76	-0.59
UOB	21.61	0.75	Jardine C&C	44.77	-0.4
HPH Trust USD	0.68	0.74	Global Logistic	2.78	-0.36

Market Review for KLCI:
KLCI opened flat today @1860.35 and made a high of 1864.23 where it closed at the same of opening point of 1860.43, low of the day was 1856.85

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1860.35
High	1864.23
Low	1856.85
Close	1860.43
Change(Points)	-0.11
% Change	-0.01
Volume	1467.4M
Rise	460
Fall	273
Unch	1428

Market forecast for KLCI:
A long green Doji candle was formed for the day with a very small body and a long upper and lower shadow for the day. we expect a little correction for tomorrow’s trading session.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1850
Support 2	1840
Support 3	1825
Resistance 1	1870
Resistance 2	1880
Resistance 3	1895

Technical indicators:
RSI is just above the centre line @ 54.20 where the CCI is performing at 26.22

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
HLBANK	13.84	0.73	BAT	61.2	-1.29
MAXIS	6.97	0.72	ASTRO	3.27	-1.21
FGV	4.54	0.44	PETGAS	23.36	-0.68
SIME	9.48	0.42	PCHEM	6.76	-0.59
IOIPG	2.66	0.38	HLFG	15.02	-0.53