GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold retreated overnight to open at 1292.50/1293.50. It climbed to a high of 1299.50/1300.5 on concerns of tougher sanctions on Russia by the West despite a decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. The metal then declined to a six-week low of 1292.00/1293.00 on dollar strength and speculation that U.S. interest rates will rise sooner than expected. Thereafter, it consolidated to close the day at 1293.50/1294.50.
Gold ended the session at 1294, closing below the 200 day MA at 1296 as it approaches the 50% Fibo retracement level (1287.45) of the 2014 rally to mid-March. Subsequent downside levels include the 100 day MA at 1272 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 1262.70. Resistance is expected at 1308 the March 24th close.
The Labor Department said the number of people who filed for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
The upbeat data added to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.
Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% gain.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 19.64/19.69. After a brief high at 19.74/19.79, it declined to a low of 19.60/19.65, prior to concluding the session at 19.70/19.75.
Silver closed at 19.73. The bearish trend in silver remains intact as the decline approaches the December 31st low at 18.8266. There are no key support levels ahead of the December 31st low.
The gold silver ratio has formed an engulfing bearish reversal; closing at 65.56, below yesterday’s open despite initially trading on an upswing. The upward sloping resistance trend line from the December and February highs has held, highlighting a challenge to further gains. Looking to the downside, the next key levels of support would be expected at 64.50 and 63.80.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $2.986 a pound, before trimming gains to last trade at $2.978 during European morning hours, up 0.4%, or 1.2 cents.
Copper lost 1.33%, or 4.0 cents, on Wednesday to settle at $2.965 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.
The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.
Upbeat U.S. durable goods orders figures on Wednesday indicated that economy is gaining momentum in the wake of a weather-induced slowdown.
Meanwhile, in China, data released earlier showed mainland China industrial profits increased 9.4% in the two months through February year-on-year, compared with 17% growth a year earlier.
The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices regained strength on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy..
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $101.35 a barrel, up 0.07%. On Thursday it reached the highest settlement price since March 7, after hitting an overnight session low of $100.04 a barrel and a high of $101.69 a barrel.

Brent oil on the ICE futures exchange rose 80 cents, or 0.8%, to $107.83 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since March 14.
Oil prices shot up after the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 2.6% in the final three months of 2013, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.4%. Market expectations had been for an upward revision to 2.7%.
Still, the report showed that personal spending was revised up to 3.3% from 2.6% initially, the fastest rate of growth in three years, which drew applause from investors betting that sluggish economic indicators hitting the wire earlier this year were the result of rough winter weather that disrupted commerce and not due to an economic soft patch.
Separately, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000.
Analysts were expecting jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
Also supporting both U.S. and European crude blends were concerns the U.S. and Europe may stiffen sanctions on crude-rich Russia and subsequently threaten global oil supply.
Crude oil prices gained slightly in Asia on Friday on a carryover from overnight better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and weekly jobless claims data.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1287	1279	1305	1315
SILVER	19.52	19.37	19.84	20.01
COPPER	3.0165	2.9965	3.0465	3.0565
CRUDE	100.30	99.33	101.97	102.67

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.3%	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	79.9	80.6	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	3.2%		LOW

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	May 1, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 25, 2014
FF Notes	The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged slightly higher overnight to open at 1313.50/1314.50, which was also the intraday high. Following the open it dipped to a low of 1300.25/1301.25 as the dollar strengthened and equities gained momentum following better-than-expected U.S. economic data that showed an increase in sales of durable goods. The slide in gold prices was also attributed to easing of tensions between Russia and the West, which suppressed demand for safe haven assets. The metal closed the day at 1302.50/1303.50.

Gold traded lower today, closing at 1302 and coming dangerously close to the 200-day moving average at 1296. A close below that level would be our stop-loss on our long-term bullish gold view. Resistance is at 1316/17, the high of the past two sessions.

Gold fell as encouraging U.S. manufacturing data reduced bullion’s appeal to institutional investors as a hedge against economic uncertainty

U.S. Federal Janet Yellen suggested interest rates could rise in the first half of 2015, raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.80 tonnes i.e. 0.22% to 816.97 tonnes from 818.77 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver was mostly unchanged overnight, opening at 19.97/20.02. It briefly climbed to a high of 20.01/20.06 before retreating on the back of gold to a low of 19.73/19.78, prior to concluding the session below the $20 mark at 19.76/19.81.

Silver had a bearish close today, closing lower at 19.76. We are bearish silver, looking for a test of the base of the consolidation that has been in place since early December, around the 18.83 low.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 65.90. There is support at 65.02, the 76.4% retracement of the last downtrend in the ratio from 67.47 high to 57.09 low. Uptrend support comes in at 62.99. We are bullish the ratio, targeting a test of the double top in the 67.50 area.

Silver prices dropped after official data showed that U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods came in higher-than-forecast in February.

Prices has been under heavy selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% last month, snapping two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.982 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.985 during European morning hours, down 0.68%, or 2.0 cents.

Copper rallied to $3.045 a pound on Tuesday, the most since March 11, before settling at $3.005 a pound, up 2.04%, or 6.0 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders later in the session.

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved more than expected in March. However, a separate report said that new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating continued weakness in the housing sector.

Copper rallied on Tuesday amid growing hopes that China will unveil fresh stimulus measures to boost slowing economic growth.

Data released on Monday showed that Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated for a third successive month in March.

The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

Copper prices fell from the previous session’s two-week high on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $100.32 a barrel, up 0.05%, after hitting an overnight session low of $99.11 a barrel and a high of $100.13 a barrel.

Prices for the global Brent oil futures contract rose four cents to settle at $107.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices firmed after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% in February, wiping out two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1.0% increase.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, inched up 0.2%, slightly below forecasts for a 0.3% gain.

The numbers fueled expectations for a more sustained pickup in the U.S. economy, which should hike demand for more fuel and energy.

Weekly inventory data gave oil prices a boost as well.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21, above expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.

The EIA also reported a 1.3 million barrel draw at a delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, which was larger expected and eclipsed the otherwise bearish 6.6 million-barrel build.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 382.5 million barrels as of last week.

Crude oil prices edged slightly higher in Asia on Thursday from a morning drop that followed overnight gains on better-than-expected reports on U.S. durable goods and oil inventories.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1296	1288	1314	1324
SILVER	19.67	19.59	20.08	20.16
COPPER	2.9930	2.9755	3.0380	3.0830
CRUDE	99.42	98.58	100.78	101.30

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	320k	326k	STRONG
6.00P.M	FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks	—	—	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Final GDP q/q	2.4%	2.7%	MEDIUM
7.30P.M	Pending Home Sales m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Apr 3, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Final GDP q/q

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Preliminary release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health;

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 28, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

COMEX Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1309.00/1310.00. It dropped to a five-week low of 1305.00/1306.00 on expectations of an earlier-than-expected rise in U.S. interest rates underpinned by U.S. data that pointed to a strong gain in consumer confidence while new home sales came in on expectations. 

The metal then climbed to a high of 1315.50/1316.50 on technical buying amidst speculation of potential economic sanctions by the West on Russia over the ongoing Ukrainian crisis. It closed the day flat at 1310.00/1311.00.

Gold found some stability today, closing at 1311, and right around a big technical level at 1312. This is the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 rally. Support is at 1296, the 200-day-moving average. If gold breaks that level we expect there will be stop-loss sellers. Resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 1334 area.

Gold ended with losses as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a lack of physical buying weighed on prices.

U.S. consumer confidence surged to a six-year high in March and house prices increased solidly in January, positioning the economy for stronger growth

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 2.70 tonnes i.e. 0.33% to 818.77 tonnes from 821.47 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver too remained relatively unchanged overnight, opening the session at 19.98/20.03. It dipped to a low of 19.91/19.96 before following gold to a high of 20.14/20.19. It concluded the session at 19.96/20.01.

Silver closed slightly lower today at 19.96 after yesterday’s steep drop. The technical outlook looks bearish, and we expect a test of support at the base in the 18.83 level. Resistance is at yesterday’s high of 20.31.

The gold-silver ratio made a small gain today, trading at 65.65. There is strong support at the uptrend at 62.95. Closer by, there is support at 65.02, the 76.4% retracement of the drop from 67.47 to 57.09. RSI has diverged, and has not made a new high to confirm the new high in the ratio. As noted yesterday, while the uptrend is .still intact, we may see some near-term weakness in the ratio.

Silver dropped as pressure seen after stronger-than-expected consumer confidence numbers and ongoing concerns rate hikes are possible in the U.S. next year

The Commerce Department said new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating headwinds still face the housing sector.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates could rise six months after the Fed’s bond-buying program ends.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $2.994 a pound, the most since March 20.

Copper last traded at $2.979 a pound during European morning hours, up 1.15%, or 3.4 cents.

Prices lost 0.17%, or 0.5 cents on Monday to settle at 2.945 a pound. Futures were likely to find support at $2.921 a pound, the low from March 24 and resistance at $2.997 a pound, the high from March 19.

Data released on Monday showed that Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated for a third successive month in March.

The weaker than expected data fuelled hopes Beijing will unveil fresh stimulus measures to combat slowing growth.

The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery inched up 0.32%, or $4.20, to trade at $1,315.30 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery added 0.35%, or 7.1 cents, to trade at $20.13 an ounce.

Investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales later Tuesday.

Copper prices rallied more than 1% on Tuesday, amid growing hopes that China will unveil fresh stimulus measures to boost slowing economic growth.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $99.31, up 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of $98.82 a barrel and a high of $100.22 a barrel.

Brent crude for May delivery, which gauges global oil prices, rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $106.99 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on Tuesday.

Industry trade group the American Petroleum Institute said domestic crude stockpiles rose 6.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks declined 2.8 million barrels, distillate stocks rose 0.3 million barrels and refinery runs were 86.8% of capacity.

The U.S. Department of Energy will release its own estimates on Wednesday.

Overnight, crude futures fell as investors remained spooked over soft Chinese output data released during the weekend, largely shrugging off robust U.S. consumer confidence data.

Crude falls on China output data, looks past U.S. confidence report

Soft Chinese factory data released over the weekend continued to water down oil prices on Tuesday.

China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest indicator of the country's industrial activity, fell to an eight-month low of 48.1 in March from a final reading of 48.5 in February, defying expectations for a rise to 48.7.

Crude oil prices rose slightly in Asia on Wednesday on continued geopolitical tensions over the Ukraine, but ample U.S. industry inventory data tempered gains.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1305	1299	1317.6	1324
SILVER	19.90	19.73	20.17	20.42
COPPER	2.0041	2.9628	3.0751	3.1048
CRUDE	98.57	97.96	100.02	100.86

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	1.1%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Durable Goods Orders m/m	-1.0%	1.1%	MEDIUM
8.00P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	5.9M	2.9M	MEDIUM

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	Orders for aircraft are volatile and can severely distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of purchase order trends;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
Also Called	Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation;
Source	Census Bureau (latest release)

Durable Goods Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	This data is usually revised via the Factory Orders report released about a week later. Durable goods are defined as hard products having a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Apr 2, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);

COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold climbed higher overnight to open at 1338.00/1339.00. It moved up marginally to a high of 1339.25/1340.25 as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. The metal then declined to a low of 1333.00/1334.00 as global equities rebounded with the S&P setting a new intra-day high. It traded within range for most of the day to close at 1335.00/1336.00.

Gold had a bearish outside week, closing lower at 1335 and completely retracing last week’s gains. This is a potential reversal warning. The support level to watch is 1312, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 uptrend. We have been bullish, but would revisit our view should 1312 be broken to the downside. Resistance is at the weekly high of 1392. Gold recovered its losses to settle flat as the dollar edged lower, though the market posted weekly drop following the Fed’s latest meet. An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold. SPDR gold trust holding gained by 4.19 tonnes i.e. 0.52% to 816.97 tonnes from 812.78 tonnes.

 SILVER

Silver was relatively unchanged overnight, opening at 20.41/20.46. It rose to a high of 20.45/20.50 before following gold lower to close at the session low of 20.28/20.33.

Silver had a bearish week, closing at 20.28. The metal continues to trade under the downtrend that has been in place since April 2011. Support is at the base of the consolidation that has been in place since June 2013, at the 18.20 level. We are neutral while silver continues to trade within this consolidation range. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 65.79. It is well supported from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.89. Resistance is at the double top in the 67.47 to 67.56 area. Silver remained under pressure as the dollar firmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015. The central bank said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by an additional $10 billion to a total of $55 billion a month. The Fed also updated its forward guidance, discarding the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering when to increase borrowing costs.

 COPPER

On the week, Comex copper prices ended down 0.02%, as ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

  Attention now shifts to the release of HSBC’s March China Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,965 contracts as of last week, up 24.5% from net shorts of 10,473 in the preceding week. Copper settled flat due to the weak outlook toward Chinese growth and lack of key market movers China’s copper market will see a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2014 through a rise in copper production as imports surpass growth. A stronger RMB which eased concerns over China’s copper demand was also behind the higher copper prices.

 CRUDE

The HSBC data for March showed a drop to 48.1, compared to a forecast of 48.7 expected and to a final of 48.5 for the previous month. A figure below 50 implies contraction with the the latest number part of a string of disappointing China data suggesting a deepening economic slowdown at the start of 2014. “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China’s growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly based with domestic demand softening further,” said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

“We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower.” On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $99.20 a barrel Crude Oil, down 0.26%. Crude oil settled 0.57% higher, or 56 cents, at $99.46 a barrel, last week on speculation over the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and amid indications the U.S. economy is improving. Investors continued to monitor events in the Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have underpinned prices. The political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia. Crude oil prices stayed weaker in Asia on Monday after the China HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index for March unexpectedly fell, placing demand doubts in the market about the world’s second largest crude oil importer. 

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1320	1313	1343	1350
SILVER	20.14	20.00	20.42	20.64
COPPER	2.9696	2.9186	3.0206	3.0473
CRUDE	98.39	97.32	100.39	101.32

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.15P.M	Flash Manufacturing PMI	57.1	56.6	MEDIUM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source	Markit(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar – early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Flash release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);

Weekly Technical Analysis Report of Singapore STI and Malaysia KLCI

Weekly Technical view on STI

This was the week in which only green candle was formed by STI as there was not a major change in the trading range of STI it opened at 3071 and made a high of 3101 where gave the closing at the same level as it was for the last week candle @3073.

Long Legged Doji was formed by this week candle. As it has long upper & lower shadow with Doji as the shorter trading range in the middle

Weekly wrap of STI:

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3071.87
HIGH	3101.86
LOW	3053.59
CLOSE	3073.39
CHANGE (In Points)	0.33
% CHANGE	0.010

Macroeconomic factors:

• A good jump in the Trade Confidence Index as it’s the highest in two years at 115 i.e. 10 points. Announced by the HSBC
• Home price inflation in China slowed in Feb also as it’s the continuous second month where average for new home price rose 8.7% for the 70 major cities in China. If calculated for MOM basis price rose 0.3% for Feb.
• Statement issued by the Finance Ministry of Singapore on Tuesday said (SMEs) small medium enterprises will receive almost Q3 of sum disbursed, which calculated over 74000 employers will be receiving around S$800 Million by wage credit scheme, pay outs by March 31.
• SGX is about to revise the fee structure which will be applicable from 2nd May 2014 as to make the trading more cost effective the clearing fee would be reduced by one fifth from 0.04% to 0.325% of contract value.
• Economists forecasted 3.8% of Growth lower than expected as 3.9%

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• As the performance of the STI was in a very range bound for this week and closing for the week was as the same for the last week. STI formed the Long Legged Doji candle for this week.
• Studding Bollinger bands chart pattern it’s very clear that the market is in a very range bound conditions as its not able to maintain itself above 3100 and closed at 3073.
• Technically STI can fall for multiple support and it would be possible by the global economic factor & market sentiment to sustain above the mark of 3100.

Technical Indicators:

MACD is moving below the base and performing flat where RSI is at 44.51 CCI is also going down and is @ -52

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3040	3000	2955	3130	3170	3210

Weekly wrap of KLCI:

KLCI closed Positive this week as it makes the green candle for this week after the red weekly candle.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed in this week, as Green candle formed for this week was followed by the red candle of the last week where the open & close for this week was formed in the range of the last week candle.

Weekly Technical view on KLCI

KLCI WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	1806.15
HIGH	1821.88
LOW	1802.88
CLOSE	1820.48
CHANGE (In Points)	15.36
% CHANGE	0.850

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• 

  KLCI took the up move for this week after the two continuous down trend for two weeks 
• The 50 days EMA’ is trading at 1778 where 20 days EMA is at 1814.
• For the coming week the KLCI can take a upside movement but on the envelope channel indicator it seems consolidate in the range of 1790 to 1835

Technical Indicators:

The RSI is moving exactly above the base line at 53.92 else CCI is performing at -21

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
1805	1795	1780	1835	1850	1870

Singapore and Malaysia Stock Market Technical Analysis Report

Market forecast for STI: Today’s performance of STI makes a Red candle & the formation of inverted hammer, where it has a small real body and a long shadow. Further the Moving Average Envelops shows that the STI is in consolidate phase and trading in a tight range where it’s becoming difficult for STI to sustain above the level of 3100.

Technical indicators:
RSI is under the base line @40.87 & MACD is moving flat where the CCI is performing at -151.88

STRAITS TIME  LEVELS
Support 1	3045
Support 2	3032
Support 3	3020
Resistance 1	3065
Resistance 2	3080
Resistance 3	3095

 Important Factor for today:-

• 30.2% increase in share price of Asiatravel between Tuesday & Wednesday further SGX made a red alert for it.
  
• SGX is about to revise the fee structure which will be applicable from 2nd May 2014 as to make the trading more cost effective the clearing fee would be reduced by one fifth from 0.04% to 0.325% of contract value.
  

Market Review for KLCI:
Today KLCI opened at 1814.29 and touched the high of 1818.17 further closed at the high. Today the green candle was formed for the day.

Market forecast for KLCI:
Hammer Pattern was formed by the todays candle with the small body and long shadow. Studding the Bollinger Bands it can be said that the KLCI is in the Over Sold position and can take a recovery for the up side. Where there is a flat move for the EMA.
Technical indicators:
RSI is just bellow the base line @48.19. Where the CCI is performing at -92.44.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1805
Support 2	1792
Support 3	1778
Resistance 1	1825
Resistance 2	1838
Resistance 3	1852

STI Daily Technical Analysis Report

Market Review for STI:

Today STI gave a gap down opening at 3079.25 with a difference of -14.59 and made a low of 3068.17 later the market recover and STI closed at 3080.75 near to high, making a green candle.

STI Day Performance
Open	3079.25
High	3082.45
Low	3068.17
Close	3079.64
Change(Points)	-14.2
% Change	-0.46
Volume	2216.6M
Rise	142
Fall	234
Unch	683

Market forecast for STI:

Today after the gap down opening of 14.59 points STI managed to give a upside closing and made a green candle. Doji Pattern was formed by the todays candle formation more over we can say it was a Dragonfly Doji, in which the open & close price are at the high of the day and by this candle formation we can expect that there can be a turning point in the further trading sessions.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3065
Support 2	3050
Support 3	3035
Resistance 1	3095
Resistance 2	3110
Resistance 3	3125

Technical indicators:

Technical indicators MACD now trading flat and RSI trading below its centreline @ 46.706 and CCI is in negative zone below -100 @ -110.99.

Important Factor for today:-

• Private Placement has been fully subscribed by the Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust, the book of order have been closed by 218,069,000 new units which will be issued pursuant to the Private Placement.
• Around S$ 35.7 Million net gain is expected in CapitaLand as it has placed all of its remaining stapled securities of Australand Property Group worth 226.2 Million i.e. 39% tentatively.
• Economists forecasted 3.8% of Growth lower than expected as 3.9%

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
Goodpack	2.230	9.852	JMH 400US$	58.900	-1.669
UOB	20.190	0.598	Jardine C&C	43.210	-1.437
St Trdg	3.400	3.030	JSH 500US$	34.280	-0.638
EzionHldg	2.130	4.412	HKLand US$	6.240	-2.500
Haw Par	8.310	0.605	CITYDEV	9.180	-1.502