Top 3 Commodity Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

Gold trading flat today. From the last six months the gold is trading on low continuously and is around 1250 .ECB also lowered the deposit rate to -0.1% i.e., it will effectively charge banks for holding their money overnight. The refinancing rate cuts down to 0.15% and the marginal lending rate cuts down to 0.40%.

Forecast

We expect prices to trade lower for the day as U.S. jobs data matched expectations, while a rally in stocks curbed the metal's appeal as an investment hedge.

SILVER

The prices of silver is trading on low from the last week, it raised up by 1.5%.The silver follows the gold and may also trade at the lower levels .In silver the prices may boost when the gold prices will lead to the bargain buying which will act as a positive factor .No major economic indicators to be released from US tonight.

Forecast

The silver follows the gold and may also trade at the sideway levels .The prices are expected to trade flat in line with the international markets.

CRUDE

The NYMEX was almost flat @$102.65 per barrel .The crude oil held above $102 a barrel on Friday, the fall in prices are marked the last week due to the strength in the dollar index and the rising OPEC production .Prices also traded lower because of ample supply in the US and ease of tensions in Ukraine. Crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels while stocks at crushing also slid 300,000 barrels to 21.4 million barrels.

Forecast

The demand for crude oil may see a gradual increase and also support the optimism in the commodity .The crude may give small profits today.

TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1244	1239	1259	1263
SILVER	18.80	18.60	19.10	19.30
CRUDE	6590	6540	6680	6730

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• China’s Trade Balance jumped to 35.9 billion Yuan in May.
• US Unemployment Rate unchanged at 6.3 percent in the last month.
• Utilities added a larger-than-expected 119 bcf NG, largest since 2009.
• German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 17.7 billion Euros in April.
• UK’s Trade Balance was at a deficit of 9.6 billion Pounds in April.

COMEX Daily Technical Analysis

GOLD

Spot gold prices started the week on a positive note and rose to three week high on escalating tensions in Ukraine and a break above the key $1300 mark. However, rising US equities with S&P moving within 1percent of its record high last week capped sharp gains in the metal.

Forecast

On an intraday basis, gold prices can trade on a mixed note and can take an up-move.

SILVER

Silver tried to rally during the course of the week, but gave up most of the gains by the time we closed on Friday. We see the $20.00 level as massively resistive now, as the market has formed a shooting star. However, we have also formed a couple of hammers in this general vicinity, so the end of the day it’s probably going to be consolidation going forward.

Forecast

On an intraday basis, we expect silver prices to trade on a mixed note as the economic data released from the US is painting bright picture about the economy.

While on the other hand, improving trend in SPDR holdings along with weakness in the DX will cushion sharp downside or even reversal in prices.

CRUDE

Crude oil prices for June expiry contract at NYMEX managed a strong performance past week. WTI prices registered gains of around 1. 5% to $101.75 per barrel for the last week In the other major global benchmark, the ICE Brent saw a near similar performance with the commodity inching higher by 1.75% to near $110 per barrel level.

Forecast

Brent rising in the recent past rapidly possibly due to Libya tension while WTI grade is managing higher. For the day we expect both the oil grades may trade higher so we suggest buying from lower levels.

TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1290	1280	1300	1308
SILVER	19.00	18.50	20.00	20.50
CRUDE	101	100.80	102	102.80

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• US Building Permits increased to 1.08 million in the last month.
• LME Copper inventories plunged by whopping 10.5 percent last week.
• Euro Zone Trade Balance was at surplus of 15.2 bn Euros in Q1 2014.
• Improving US economic data exerts downside pressure on gold prices.
• US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 81.8-mark in May.

Data Update for 19th May 2014

Time	Currency	Impact	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
4:15am	NZD		PPI Input q/q	1.00%	0.50%	-0.70%
	NZD		PPI Output q/q	0.90%	0.40%	-0.40%
4:31am	GBP		Rightmove HPI m/m	3.60%		2.60%
5:20am	JPY		Core Machinery Orders m/m	19.10%	6.10%	-4.60%
12:30pm	EUR	High	German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
Tentative	EUR		German Buba Monthly Report
All Day	CAD		Bank Holiday